Viendo archivo del lunes, 26 agosto 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 238 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Aug 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 83 (S19W56) produced two small M-class flares, an M1/Sf at 25/2346 UTC and an M1/Sf at 26/0103 UTC. In addition, several C-class subflares occurred in Region 85 (S09W19). The largest was a C4/Sf at 26/0945 UTC. New Region 90 (S03E48) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A shock in the solar wind was observed by the NASA ACE spacecraft at 26/1048 UTC. The most active 3-hour geomagnetic period was 26/1500 to 1800 UTC. This activity is believed to be related to the M5 flare/CME event which occurred on 22 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended at 26/1335 UTC (start at 24/0140 UTC and 317 pfu peak at 24/0835 UTC).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Aug a 29 Aug
Clase M40%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Aug 169
  Previsto   27 Aug-29 Aug  160/155/150
  Media de 90 Días        26 Aug 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Aug  004/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Aug  016/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  012/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Aug a 29 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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