Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 185 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W76)
produced the largest flare of the past 24 hours, an M1/Sf at 04/0734
UTC, as well as several C-class subflares throughout the day. This
area appears to be decaying as it approaches the west limb. Region
19 (S17E07) also produced C-class activity and has increased
slightly in magnetic complexity. New Region 25 (S18E75) rotated
around the east limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in both Regions 17 and 19.
Region 17 remains the most likely to produce a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a general increase in
activity levels over the next three days due to a coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jul a 07 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Jul 146 Previsto 05 Jul-07 Jul 140/135/130 Media de 90 Días 04 Jul 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jul 003/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 010/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jul a 07 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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