Viendo archivo del martes, 6 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 218 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Newly assigned Region 63 (N17E73) produced an M1 event at 05/2122
UTC. The group also produced a C7/1n at 1259 UTC. Region 57 (S08W66)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and produced a C8/1f
at 0144 UTC and a C7/Sf at 1527 UTC. The group exhibited frequent
surging and brightenings throughout the day, but the spots appear to
be simplifying somewhat. Region 61 (N09E41) showed some growth today
and produced a couple low-level C-class events. A filament near
S42W40 erupted today: the material started to rise in EIT195 images
around 1600 UTC and was visible as a CME in LASCO C2 at 1825 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next two days as
a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position. Conditions should
subside to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Aug a 09 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Aug 145 Previsto 07 Aug-09 Aug 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 06 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Aug a 09 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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