Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1 flare at 0126 UTC from Region 57 (S09W79). This group
has continued to show surging and plage brightenings as it nears the
west limb. Region 61 (N09E28) showed steady growth during the past
24 hours and has formed a small delta configuration in the central
portion of the region. The group has only been able to produce
subflare level activity so far. Region 63 (N17E65) has rotated into
view as a moderate sized bipolar region and produced a couple
subflares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. ACE real-time solar wind show a solar sector boundary change
at about 0800 UTC on 07 August.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a slight chance for active
levels during the next 24 hours. Enhanced activity may occur in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Conditions are
expected to be unsettled on day two and quiet to unsettled on the
third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 136 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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