Viendo archivo del jueves, 8 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 220 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C1.9 flare at 08/0104 UTC.
Region 57 (S08W90) and Region 61 (N08E14) both produced lesser,
subfaint flares during the period. Most active regions remain
little changed from yesterday. Region 65 (S10E55) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mainly low for the next three days, with some chance for isolated
M-class flare activity most likely from Region 61, or Region 63
(N17E51).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods are possible during the first day of the
period, due to potential effects from a coronal hole located near
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Aug a 11 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Aug 135 Previsto 09 Aug-11 Aug 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 08 Aug 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Aug 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Aug a 11 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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