Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 221 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C2.0 flare at 09/0900 UTC.
Region 61 (N18E00) produced a C1.4/Sf event at 09/0650 UTC. This
region remains the largest on the visible disk, but now exhibits
reduced penumbral coverage, weakening its prior delta configuration.
New Region 66 (N14E70) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A small chance for M-class activity still
exists, especially for Region 61.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active periods
occurred in association with a rising trend in solar wind speed and
sustained periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods possible during the first day of the forecast period, and
again on the third day due to potential high speed stream effects
from a coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Aug 140 Previsto 10 Aug-12 Aug 140/145/150 Media de 90 Días 09 Aug 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 008/010-005/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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