Viendo archivo del lunes, 5 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 217 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C4/Sf at 0517 UTC from Region 57 (S07W53). The Region showed some
growth in the central part of the group and is a magnetic beta-gamma
region due to some weak polarity mixing in a predominantly bipolar
group. New Region 62 (S05W23) emerged on the disk today as a small
simple C-type region. The remaining active regions were quiet,
stable, and largely unchanged. There were indications of a new group
rotating around east limb at N09. A small filament near N00E35
disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 57 over the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled with some isolated active periods is expected on
the second and third days in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Aug 142 Previsto 06 Aug-08 Aug 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 05 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/012-012/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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