Viendo archivo del jueves, 30 mayo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 150 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9973 (S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred at 30/1725 UTC. This region also produced several minor subflares, some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity. Also, it may have been responsible for several optically uncorrelated C-class flares. It underwent a very slight decay, but retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532 UTC. The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not appear as though it will be geoeffective. Region 9963 (N16W56) produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period. This region underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots. New Region 9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled conditions following. This was believed to be from the disappearing filament on 27 May.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 May a 02 Jun
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 May 180
  Previsto   31 May-02 Jun  180/175/170
  Media de 90 Días        30 May 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 May  006/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 May  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 May a 02 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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