Viendo archivo del viernes, 3 mayo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 03 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The most interesting flare of the past day was a long-duration C6/Sf at 02/2134 UTC in Region 9926 (N15W56). This event was associated with a filament eruption, Type II sweep, and a CME visible in LASCO images that was apparently directed towards the northwest. CME material was also seen directed towards the southeast but preliminary analysis suggests that this may be related to a separate event, possibly from beyond the east limb. Region 9934 (S17E48) remains the largest and most complex sunspot group on the disk and is currently a moderately-large E-type group with a delta configuration in the leader spot complex. This region has produced flares during the past day but none of them have had significant x-ray output. New Regions 9937 (S09E68) and 9938 (S04E72) are rotating onto the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares are expected to continue from a number of sunspot groups. Region 9934 remains the most likely source of M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced activity levels are possible on 05-06 May but a significant disturbance from the LDE/CME discussed in Part IA is not expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 May a 06 May
Clase M30%40%50%
Clase X01%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       03 May 179
  Previsto   04 May-06 May  185/190/195
  Media de 90 Días        03 May 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 02 May  004/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 03 May  005/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 May a 06 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

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