Viendo archivo del martes, 19 febrero 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely. Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Feb 189
  Previsto   20 Feb-22 Feb  195/200/205
  Media de 90 Días        19 Feb 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  007/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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