Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 077 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Activity in the vicinity
of Region 9866 (S09W46) was associated with a long duration M1 flare
which began at 0216 UTC and ended at 0400 UTC. Also associated with
this event were a type IV sweep and a halo CME visible in LASCO
imagery. Region 9866 continues to decay slowly. C-class flare
activity was observed from Region 9870 (S20W39) which appears to
have some new, opposite polarity flux emergence. Region 9871
(S19E07) produced a C8/1f flare at 1918 UTC and is currently the
largest region on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9866 and 9871 are considered to be the most likely
sources for M-class flares. There is a slight chance for a major
flare during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until 1323 UTC when a strong sudden
impulse (SI) was observed. The SI measured 42 nT on the Boulder
magnetometer. The SI followed the passage of a shock at ACE at 1237
UTC. The post shock flow at ACE consisted of enhanced magnetic
fields but so far they have been predominantly northward.
Geomagnetic activity subsequent to the SI has been unsettled to
active. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 17/0820
UTC officially ended at 17/1230 UTC, but flux levels remained
enhanced thereafter. With the arrival of the shock the protons once
again reached event level, beginning at 19/1300 UTC. The maximum
flux observed so far was 25 PFU at 19/1535 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours, with a chance
for some isolated minor storm periods. After the current transient
flow subsides there should be a lull in activity, but another shock
is expected to arrive near mid-day (UT time) on the 20th in response
to today's halo CME. Activity following this shock is expected to be
mostly active. Conditions should subside to unsettled sometime on
the third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to end
sometime in the next 12 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Mar 178 Previsto 19 Mar-21 Mar 180/175/175 Media de 90 Días 18 Mar 214
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Mar 015/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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