Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 enero 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 023 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jan 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9794 (N12E23) was the most active region during the period and produced the largest flare of the day. This region produced a C3/Sf at 23/1337 UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 562 km/s. A second Type II radio sweep occurred in this region following an optical Sf flare at 23/0339 UTC, estimated shock velocity of 384 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates neither of these radio sweeps will be geoeffective. This region also produced two other minor C-class flares early in the period. Regions 9783 (S11W65), 9787 (S07E06), and newly numbered Region 9799 (S25E54) also produced minor C-class flare activity during the period. Region 9788 (N17W14) did show some decay in the penumbral coverage since yesterday, although this region retains it's beta-gamma magnetic classification. New Regions 9795 (N23W60), 9796 (N09E18), 9797 (S16E32), and 9798 (S03E42) were also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9787 and 9788 magnetic structures possess the potential to produce M-class flares
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jan a 26 Jan
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Jan 227
  Previsto   24 Jan-26 Jan  230/225/225
  Media de 90 Días        23 Jan 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jan  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jan a 26 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%20%20%
Tormenta Menor01%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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