Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 361 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high, due to the occurrence of
five M-class flares. Region 9748 (S11W64) produced two M-class
events, the largest being an M2/2n at 27/1648 UTC. Lesser M-class
activity included one uncorrelated event, and flares from Region
9742 (N12W81), and from the spotless plage of Region 9752 (S13W85)
near the west limb. Two new regions were numbered: 9762 (N03E07)
and 9763 (N06E76).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10 MeV
proton event, which began on 26 December, remains in progress with
current flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase within the next 24 hours, due to a possible
flanking shock passage from the CME activity of 26 December. Minor
storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods at higher
latitudes are possible during the first day of the forecast period.
Storm activity is expected to be of relatively brief duration, with
predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for days two
and three of the forecast period. The solar proton event in
progress is expected to wane over the next 24-36 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 75% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Dec 275 Previsto 28 Dec-30 Dec 265/260/255 Media de 90 Días 27 Dec 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 009/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 030/030-018/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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