Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 049 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels for the eighth
consecutive day. Isolated C-class subflares occurred. Region 9830
(S18E20) produced a few subflares as it continued to gradually
increase in size and complexity. Multiple magnetic delta
configurations have developed within its leader spots during recent
days. Region 9825 (N14W51) continued to gradually decay. New Region
9832 (S13E25) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 could produce an isolated M-class flare
during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Feb a 21 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Feb 193 Previsto 19 Feb-21 Feb 195/190/185 Media de 90 Días 18 Feb 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 007/012-007/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Feb a 21 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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