Viendo archivo del domingo, 5 agosto 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 217 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Aug 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at 05/1531 UTC. Subflares in Regions 9557 (S21W51) and 9566 (N17E08) occurred during the M-flare, contributing to the total X-ray flux of the event. These Regions also produced several C-class flares during the past day. Region 9563 (N23W07) produced C-class subflare activity as well. All of these sunspot groups continued to grow. New Regions 9569 (S18E10) and 9570 (S10E76) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9557, 9563, and 9566.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled becoming active to minor storm after 05/0600 UTC. The field was most disturbed from 05/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled by the second day of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Aug a 08 Aug
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Aug 156
  Previsto   06 Aug-08 Aug  160/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        05 Aug 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Aug  007/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Aug  020/022
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  015/015-015/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Aug a 08 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa02%02%02%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa02%02%02%

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