Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event. At 31/2243 UTC, Region 9601 (N14E18) produced an M2.9/2n
flare with an accompanying 540 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio
sweep (velocity est. 700 km/s). LASCO imagery shows that what
appears to be a non earth-directed CME was also produced by this
flare. Since that event, only sporadic, minor C-class flares were
reported during the period. Region 9601 increased in sunspot count
and developed a delta magnetic configuration late in the period.
Region 9591 (S20W46) continued to show signs of decay, but still
retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. One new
region was numbered today: 9602 at (S08E30).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of
producing M-class events and possibly major flares during the
forecast period. Region 9591 should remain on the visible disk until
04-05 September.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active due to recurrent coronal hole effects
as well as possible transient shocks in the solar wind. Isolated
minor storming conditions are possible at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 184 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 011/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 015/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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