Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 agosto 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9601 (N14E32) produced an M1/Sn event with an accompanying 270 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (velocity est. 961 km/s). LASCO imagery does not show any signs of an earth-directed coronal mass ejection from this event. Region 9601 has continued to show growth over the period and is capable of producing a major flare at any time. Region 9591 (S20W39) has shown some signs of minor decay during the period. It continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is still capable of producing an isolated major flare before it rotates over the western limb on September 04-05. There are only three other spotted regions on the disk at this time. None of which have produced any significant activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9591 and 9601 are expected to continue to produce isolated M-class events and both are capable of producing a major flare during the forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with recurrent coronal hole effects beginning on 01 September. Barring any earth-directed coronal mass ejections, conditions should return to mostly quiet to unsettled on 03 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 Aug 189
  Previsto   01 Sep-03 Sep  190/190/190
  Media de 90 Días        31 Aug 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 31 Aug  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  015/015-015/025-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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