Viendo archivo del martes, 28 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 333 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Low-level C-class activity
continued. The largest flare was a C4/Sn at 27/2352 UTC in Region
9242 (N19E11). This is still a small sunspot group but is developing
and has produced a number of subflares. Region 9236 (N19W64) remains
the largest sunspot group on the visible disk but since yesterday
has only produced minor flares without significant X-ray output.
This active region is slowly decaying in all parameters. New Regions
9245 (N04E65) and 9246 (S12E47) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is possible in Regions 9236, 9242,
9244, and 9246. Region 9236 may produce another major flare before
it completely decays or departs the visible disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A
shock, presumably from CME's occurring on November 25 or 26, was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at 28/0459 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton event continues in progress. The present particle flux
is about 20 pfu and is slowly declining.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to storm levels becoming quiet to unsettled
as the present disturbance subsides. The most recent CME (see Part
IIA) is the last one expected from the flare/CME activity of the
last several days. The greater that 10 MeV proton event is expected
to end within the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Nov a 01 Dec
| Clase M | 60% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Nov 196 Previsto 29 Nov-01 Dec 195/190/180 Media de 90 Días 28 Nov 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Nov 027/038 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Nov 030/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 015/025-010/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Nov a 01 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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