Viendo archivo del lunes, 27 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 332 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 9236 (N19W51) has started to decline in most
parameters since yesterday's major flare. New Region 9244 (N15W30)
is emerging rapidly to the east of 9236 and has already generated a
C-class subflare. New Region 9243 (S12E30) was also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9236 retains enough magnetic complexity for
another major flare. If Region 9244 continues to emerge at its
present rate it could start producing low-level M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
This activity has been in response to the flare/CME activity on
24-25 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in
progress but is declining. The peak flux was 942 pfu at 26/2030 UTC.
The greater than 100 MeV proton event ended at 26/2040 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels. CME's that occurred
on 26-27 November are expected to extend the present disturbance.
Barring any new CME's, the level of geomagnetic activity is expected
to diminish to unsettled to active levels by the third day of the
forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
continue its decay, ending within the next 48 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Nov a 30 Nov
| Clase M | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Protón | 95% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Nov 192 Previsto 28 Nov-30 Nov 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 27 Nov 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Nov 019/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Nov 040/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 030/040-030/025-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Nov a 30 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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