Viendo archivo del domingo, 24 diciembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Dec 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 359 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Dec 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels, due to a
single M-class flare: an M1/Sf at 24/1115 UTC, from Region 9283
(S12E53). This region also produced several elevated C-class events
throughout the day, and exhibits notable growth in spot count, areal
coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday. Region 9280
(N09E80) remains the largest spot group on the disk, and also shows
some increase in magnetic complexity, though did not produce any
notable flare activity today. Two new regions were numbered:
9285 (N06E59) and 9286 (N30W47), with the former a source of some
subfaint C-class flare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Regions 9280 and 9283 are the
most likely sources of potential M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at middle and high latitudes
throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Some chance of
active levels exists for day one, due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Dec a 27 Dec
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Dec 193 Previsto 25 Dec-27 Dec 195/195/190 Media de 90 Días 24 Dec 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Dec 012/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 012/012-010/010-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Dec a 27 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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