Viendo archivo del martes, 14 noviembre 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1 X-ray flare occurred at 14/1634 UTC. No ground-based optical reports were received for this flare, but SOHO/EIT images indicate that this flare originated near the northeast limb, possibly from newly numbered Region 9233 (N13E76). Region 9231 (S24E56) increased in spot count and area during the day. It produced occasional subflares, the largest of which was a C7/2n at 14/0806 UTC. A Type IV radio sweep began at 14/0831 UTC and may have been associated with the C7/2n flare. A Type II radio sweep occurred at 14/0902 UTC. Minor spot growth occurred in Region 9227 (S10W28).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flare activity is possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during most of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decline to normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Nov 149
  Previsto   15 Nov-17 Nov  155/155/160
  Media de 90 Días        14 Nov 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov  005/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  010/012-008/015-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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