Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated
C-class flares occurred, the largest of which was a C5/1b at 15/0246
UTC from Region 9223 (S14W61). The visible regions were mostly
stable with no significant growth or decay noted. New Region 9234
(N20E22) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for isolated M-class
activity during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decline to
normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 147 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 150/155/155 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 007/015-007/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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