Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 321 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. An impressive,
full-halo CME occurred early in the period, but was judged to be
from a source on the far side of the Sun. A C8 X-ray flare occurred
at 16/0040 UTC associated with a weak Type II radio sweep and a CME
that did not appear to be Earth-directed. The source for this flare
was determined to be Region 9231 (S23E30), based on SOHO/EIT images.
Region 9231 showed a gradual increase in spot count and penumbral
coverage, as well as a minor increase in magnetic complexity. New
Region 9235 (N14E63) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce an isolated M-class
flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first two
days of the forecast period. Field activity is expected to increase
to unsettled to active levels on the third day due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to decline to normal to moderate levels during the latter
half of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Nov 154 Previsto 17 Nov-19 Nov 155/160/160 Media de 90 Días 16 Nov 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 007/012-010/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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