Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the last 24 hours.
The largest flare event was a C2 at 1211Z which was not observed
optically. Region 9227 (S11W14) continues to grow slowly and
produced a C2/Sf flare at 1630Z. Two new regions rotated into view
today: Region 9231 (S23E72) and Region 9232 (N26E76). Both appear to
be moderate-sized D-type sunspot groups.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from any of regions 9227, 9231, or 9232.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind continues to show a high-speed solar wind
stream, but the average interplanetary Bz magnetic field component
has been weakly positive. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 08/2350z and reached a maximum of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600Z
ended today at 13/0745Z. The flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at
GOES has been at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days and is
expected to be quiet to unsettled by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Nov 144 Previsto 14 Nov-16 Nov 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 13 Nov 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 020/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/010-010/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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