Viendo archivo del martes, 17 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9193 (N05W86) produced a
long-duration C3/Sf flare at 17/0204UT. Minor C-class subfaint
flares also occurred in Region 9200 (S18E46). New Region 9201
(N16E69) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Just an isolated chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated in a high speed coronal hole stream, but is in slow
decline. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
16/1125UT, ended at 17/0210UT. The peak of 15 pfu occurred at
16/1840UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible
on day two from the large CME observed early on 16 Oct.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 154 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 160/170/180 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 011/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/010-015/015-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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