Viendo archivo del jueves, 2 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 307 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9218 (N19E26) produced
several minor C-class events. Region 9218 (N19E26) grew
significantly in area since yesterday but maintained a simple beta
magnetic configuration. An EPL occurred on the northwest limb at
approximately 02/1744Z. Further analysis is required as data
becomes available. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an earth-directed
full halo CME from a filament eruption east of Region 9214
yesterday at approximately S17E39. The CME was first visible above
the SE limb at 01/1626Z. The imagery suggests most of the material
and energy associated with the CME is directed to the southeast.
However, evidence of a weak full halo is clear. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled the first day. Due to the
expected arrival of the earth-directed full halo CME mentioned
above, active conditions are expected on the second day of the
period. Minor storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to decrease to predominantly
unsettled conditions toward the end of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Nov a 05 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Nov 196 Previsto 03 Nov-05 Nov 200/200/195 Media de 90 Días 02 Nov 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 008/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Nov a 05 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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