Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED TODAY: REGION 8518 NEAR S16E66 AND REGION 8519 NEAR N17W33.
TWO FILAMENTS ERUPTED DURING THE PERIOD: AN 8 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR
S19W08 BETWEEN 16/2144UT AND 17/1116UT AND A 20 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR
S32W15 BETWEEN 17/1640-1830UT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN WITH A SUDDEN IMPULSE YESTERDAY
AT 16/1126Z INTENSIFIED INTO A GEOMAGNETIC STORM. MID-LATITUDES WERE
AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ON THE 17TH FROM 00-09UT AND HIGH
LATITUDES WERE AT MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE SAME TIME
INTERVAL. THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDED AFTER 0900Z WITH PREDOMINANTLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM 1200 TO THE END OF THE DAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 APR a 20 APR
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 APR 116 Previsto 18 APR-20 APR 114/112/110 Media de 90 Días 17 APR 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR 035/045 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR 010/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 APR a 20 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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