Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 106 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8517 (N20W21).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AT 16/1036Z A SHOCK
ARRIVED AT L1. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 16/1126Z. THE SOLAR WIND
DENSITY OFF OF THE ACE SPACECRAFT INCREASED TO 68 P/CC AT 16/1443Z.
SEVERAL MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE OBSERVED ON THE GOES-8 (W74)
BETWEEN 16/1515-1820Z. THIS ACTIVITY CORRELATES WELL WITH THE
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 13 APRIL.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 13 APRIL. THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 APR a 19 APR
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 APR 123 Previsto 17 APR-19 APR 120/118/116 Media de 90 Días 16 APR 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 APR 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR 020/020-010/010-005/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 APR a 19 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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