Viendo archivo del domingo, 18 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED
B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED, TWO OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY TIED TO
REGION 8514 (S33W69). THIS REGION SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT
APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. ALL THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE EITHER
STABLE OR DECLINING SLOWLY. A 21-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN CENTERED
NEAR N19E03, DISAPPEARED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS
OBSERVED AROUND 17/0600Z. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH BRIEF UNSETTLED INTERVALS
AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS, THEN INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 APR a 21 APR
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 APR 113 Previsto 19 APR-21 APR 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 18 APR 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 APR 030/047 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 APR 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 APR-21 APR 005/008-010/012-020/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 APR a 21 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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