Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 222 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8293 (S23W30) AND 8299
(N15E40) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8293 DECAYED
IN SUNSPOT NUMBER BUT MAINTAINS MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN A
BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8299 SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE. BOTH REGIONS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FREQUENT
SURGING AND PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. REGIONS 8297 (N32E22) AND 8298
(N19W24) PRODUCED SMALL SUBFLARES LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEITHER
REGION EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
MAINTAIN SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE
BEEN QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING FREQUENT C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 12 AUG
IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 08 AUG. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13 AUG.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 AUG a 13 AUG
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 AUG 149 Previsto 11 AUG-13 AUG 150/150/145 Media de 90 Días 10 AUG 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG 012/015-025/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 AUG a 13 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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