Viendo archivo del domingo, 9 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 221 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8299 (N15E52)
PRODUCED A M1/1B AT 09/0847Z AND A M3/2B AT 09/1718Z. THIS REGION
ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE
ACCURATE WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC ANALYSIS DIFFICULT. IT'S
IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME, BUT MIXED
POLARITIES APPEAR MORE OBVIOUS IN THIS C-CLASS 14 SPOT GROUP. REGION
8293 (S23W18) REMAINS MODERATELY COMPLEX AND PRODUCED A C3/SF AT
08/1626Z. SOME GROWTH WAS EVIDENT IN WHITE LIGHT AS THIS SPOT GROUP,
NUMBERING AS HIGH AS 77 SPOTS, NOW COVERS AN AREA OF 580 MILLIONTHS.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY, 8300 (S29W01) AND 8301 (S20E71).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON 12 AUG IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 8 AUG.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 AUG a 12 AUG
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 AUG 154 Previsto 10 AUG-12 AUG 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 09 AUG 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG 007/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG 010/010-012/015-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 AUG a 12 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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