Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 agosto 1998

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 220 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 AUG 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE. AN UNOBSERVED M3 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 0317Z. TYPE II SWEEP AND MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. FREQUENT LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGIONS 8293 (S22W05) AND 8299 (N16E64) WERE COMMONPLACE DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH OF THESE REGIONS ARE IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, AND SHOW NO SIGNS OF ABATING THEIR FLARE ACTIVITY. IN THE EARLY HOURS OF 08 AUGUST, A VERY PROMINENT, CENTRALLY-LOCATED FILAMENT MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES DISAPPEARED. THIS FEATURE WAS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND CENTERED NEAR N30E00. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAS A SYMPTOM OF A MASS EJECTION HIGHER IN THE CORONA. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINING FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS EXHIBITED LITTLE ACTIVITY, AND THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE BOTH GOOD CANDIDATES FOR CONTINUED OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TODAY'S DSF/CME EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FIELD BEFORE 12 AUGUST.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 AUG a 11 AUG
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 AUG 147
  Previsto   09 AUG-11 AUG  150/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        08 AUG 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG  024/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG  013/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG  010/012-005/010-005/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 AUG a 11 AUG
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%10%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%20%20%
Tormenta Menor20%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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