Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. THE DAY'S LARGEST FLARE
WAS A C4/SF AT 0722Z FROM REGION 8293 (S22E09). FIVE OTHER REGIONS
CONTRIBUTED SMALL FLARES DURING THE PERIOD, INCLUDING A C2/SF WITH
TYPE II SWEEP AT 1431Z FROM REGION 8296 (N16E44). THE DISK NUMBERS
SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS, WITH 8293 STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE
LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. ITS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT POINT BRIGHTENINGS AND ARCH FILAMENTS
PERSIST. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED; 8298 (N19E16) AND 8299
(N17E74).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8293.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD, WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET
TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 AUG a 10 AUG
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 AUG 145 Previsto 08 AUG-10 AUG 150/150/145 Media de 90 Días 07 AUG 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 AUG 043/069 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG 018/039 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG 010/018-005/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 AUG a 10 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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