Viendo archivo del martes, 11 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ISOLATED, MOSTLY OPTICALLY
UNCORROLATED MINOR C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
REGION 8293 (S22W44) IS SLOWLY DECAYING BUT STILL MAINTAINS MODERATE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8299
(N15E26) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND
SURGING BUT HAS OTHERWISE BEEN QUIET. REGION 8298 (N20W38)
EXPERIENCED MINOR GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 10/2142Z. REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 ARE SHOWING SOME SLIGHT DECAY BUT
ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 08 AUG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY DAY 2 AND 3.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 AUG a 14 AUG
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 AUG 150 Previsto 12 AUG-14 AUG 150/145/145 Media de 90 Días 11 AUG 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 AUG 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG 025/025-015/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 AUG a 14 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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