Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8293 (S23W58) PRODUCED
C1 SUBFLARES AT 12/1159Z AND AGAIN AT 12/1759Z. THIS REGION'S
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY AND OVERALL DECAY WAS
OBVIOUS IN BOTH WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. REGION 8299 (N16E14) IS THE
LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK COVERING 520 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE
LIGHT AREA. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS BUT NO FLARES WERE OBSERVED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
NOTED. NEW REGION 8302 (S14E30) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8293, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL QUITE ACTIVE AND CAPABLE OF
MORE C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8299 IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. BOTH REGIONS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
M-CLASS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING NIGHT TIME
HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 AUG a 15 AUG
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 AUG 147 Previsto 13 AUG-15 AUG 145/145/140 Media de 90 Días 12 AUG 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG 004/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG 010/013-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 AUG a 15 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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