Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 marzo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 070 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 MAR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW FLUX EMERGENCE IS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF REGIONS 8178 (S16E59) AND 8179
(S23E50). THIS COMPLEX MAY PROVE TO CONSIST OF MORE THAN TWO GROUPS,
BUT THAT DETERMINATION AWAITS FURTHER ANALYSIS AFFECTED BY LESS
FORESHORTENING TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLARE ACTIVITY
OCCURRED, AND THE LIMBS WERE STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD PERSISTED AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY BEGAN YESTERDAY NEAR
0900Z AND IS NOW WANING. CONSTANT SOLAR WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 500
KM/S OCCURRED DURING THE ENTIRE INTERVAL. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT 1458Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY, AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. EPISODES OF SUBSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL
NIGHTTIMES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE
THE LAST 2 DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 MAR a 14 MAR
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 MAR 101 Previsto 12 MAR-14 MAR 105/110/115 Media de 90 Días 11 MAR 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR 026/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR 025/028 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 MAR a 14 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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