Viendo archivo del martes, 10 marzo 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 069 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 MAR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO NEW REGIONS ROTATED
INTO VIEW, 8178 (S15E72) AND 8179 (S22E60), MAKING A TOTAL OF 5
SPOTTED REGIONS NOW VISIBLE. REGION 8179 IS THE LIKELY RETURN OF OLD
8156, THE PRODUCER OF MANY C-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION. A LARGE
BUSHY FILAMENT POSITIONED NEAR S50E10 DISAPPEARED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 0600Z. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A STEADY
INCREASE IN SPEED STARTING NEAR 0600Z AND CONTINUING TO A MAXIMUM
VALUE NEAR 500 KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGEST THE POSSIBLE SOURCE OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE A HIGH SPEED
STREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ALTHOUGH AN
EXACT DETERMINATION IS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT. THE ENHANCED TOTAL
FIELD IN THE SOLAR WIND ARGUES FOR A CONTRIBUTION FROM A CME AS
WELL.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN WITH TIME,
GIVING WAY TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE
INTERVAL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 MAR a 13 MAR
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 MAR 096 Previsto 11 MAR-13 MAR 099/102/105 Media de 90 Días 10 MAR 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR 001/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR 025/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR 025/020-010/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 MAR a 13 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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