Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/1534Z from Region 3928 (S14E60). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec,
22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 18/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/0015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 393 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 175 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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