Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
18/0734Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec,
21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 18/2048Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
17/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 338 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 174 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 175/185/190 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 020/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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