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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0353Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (10 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 09/1919Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0520Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 438 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M10%25%25%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 124
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 122/140/145
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%15%

All times in UTC

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