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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0314Z from Region 3634 (N27E54). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 08/2000Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M10%10%40%
Class X01%01%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 125
  Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 128/126/140
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  010/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%25%

All times in UTC

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