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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 177
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 170/170/168
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/005-014/018-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%40%40%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%65%65%

All times in UTC

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