Viewing archive of Monday, 1 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X5 event observed at
31/2155Z from Region 3536 (N05E75). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed was estimated to have reached a peak around 350 km/s. Total
IMF reached 11 nT at 01/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -11 nT at 01/2100Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 01/0035Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 136 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 018/026-011/014-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/19 | M1.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 157.7 +21.2 |
| Last 30 days | 171.7 +57.7 |