Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1912Z from Region 3536 (N05E75). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan,
03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 481 km/s at 31/0123Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
31/0538Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and
quiet levels on day three (03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 146 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 011/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 25% |
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