Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/1118Z from Region 3529 (S21W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec,
27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 24/1847Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/0346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 228 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 183 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 180/170/165 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 006/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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