Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/0914Z from Region 3530 (N08E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec,
26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 23/1113Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1065 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 174 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 172/168/165 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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