Viewing archive of Monday, 18 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18/1422Z from Region 3528 (N09E12). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (19 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 18/2036Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/1034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M25%20%20%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 161
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 162/162/164
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  032/044
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  017/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  014/015-010/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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