Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 November 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14/1811Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 14/0022Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 14/0000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 14/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M20%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 124
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 124/122/120
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  015/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  009/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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