Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 August 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/2327Z from Region 3417 (S07E61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 29/2209Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 139
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 165

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  006/005-010/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

All times in UTC

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