Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 August 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/2328Z from Region 3413 (N09W48). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 31/2042Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
Class M20%20%15%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Aug 140
  Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 140/150/150
  90 Day Mean        31 Aug 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  009/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Aug  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  010/010-011/012-025/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm05%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%05%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%30%70%

All times in UTC

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